Data Makes us a prisoner of the past

 I would like to start this blog with a story that is often talked about in management sessions!

This is a story about two executives of a Multi National Footwear Company – Peter and Sam. One day, they both were asked to visit Uganda (located in Africa) and estimate the Market Potential. Based on their feedback, the company was to decide whether to enter Uganda or not? Peter and Sam reluctantly agreed as they didn't like the idea of visiting Uganda. They were to visit different parts of Uganda and make separate presentations on their learning. On their return, Sam started the presentation on return suggesting strongly that the company should not enter this country as there is no potential. Management was disappointed, but then decided to take the final call after Peter’s presentation. Peter’s Point of View was completely different. He strongly suggested entering the country, at the earliest as there was huge potential and he expected to have a profitable business. Management was in a dilemma, and so decided to deep dive in to both their Point of Views.  What was surprising was, that the reason both of them quoted was the same – “The country consists of mainly tribals, who do not use Footwear at all”. So, where Sam saw that usage in the country of Footwear was zero, he mentally calculated and based on previous trends, he forecasted the sales also to be zero. However, Peter saw a huge opportunity. He saw that the current usage was zero and the sales can be in multiples of the population of the entire country!

Whilst we can step back and laugh at Sam, isn’t this what we also tend to do, in our business. We, more often than not, mistake past performance as Potential and limit our thinking in terms of deliverables. As they say, “if you do what you have always done, you will get what you have always got”. So, it should not surprise us that results we are getting today, are not very different from the past, because that’s the limit we put on our imaginations.

We also tend to believe, that we will continue to sell what we have always sold. What we need to urgently realize that trends change with each passing day. Did you even notice that so many products from our households have vanished over a period of time? Now, a single device called mobile phone has replaced entire categories like alarm clock, transistors, even calculators! If Conventional TVs sold well at one point in time, it will now be difficult to sell one piece in a single month. Boot Cut was a thing of the past and now every single person on the roads wears fitting jeans. We need to mark the changing trends with every passing day, because “if we don’t move forward, we are not stagnant, we are actually moving backwards!”

I have also noticed that a lot of times, we see products with shortage as high potential products – which again is not necessarily true as we do not know and never bother to understand the actual sales lost at that point in time. Maybe that was the optimum number of units that product would have sold. Are we prisoners of the "yoy" syndrome? When "yoy" growth is expected, we try and put higher growth on the better selling product and lower growth on the low selling product. By this, I am not suggesting that past should be completely ignored and quantification should be done away with. Past, in that sense, will always help us have our reality checks. But we definitely need to delink the two and think of them independently.

Can we have some “past challenging” questions and even better answers?

PS: Look forward to your feedback. you can connect with me on twitter via @agrawalsanjeev

Twists and Turns are part of life and not just cricket.

Starting on a lighter note, I would like to mention a joke which is being widely circulated on SMSes and BBM these days:

Couple Silent on Bed.

Wife Thinks : Why is he not talking to me? Is he thinking of some other woman? Don’t I appeal to him anymore? Are wrinkles showing on my face? Is he trying to dump me? I put on weight at the wrong places?  WHY IS HE UPSET?

Husband Thinks: Why the hell did Dhoni give the last over to Nehra?

Well, I know that this decision of Dhoni gave a lot of us enough reason to be upset that night. What is also clear that Cricket is an unpredictable game, and a single ball can change the direction of the game!  In 1992, Pakistan were on the verge of elimination from the World Cup but went on to win the tournament. In 1999 no one was sure whether Australia would get past the Super Six stage but they ended up winners. We started off very badly in the 2003 World Cup and the entire Indian team was heavily criticized after our first two matches. We did turn around and reached the final. And then, an inner voice asked – “Are these twist and turns only a part of cricket? Isn’t this what happens in our lives too?”

Quite some time back, it so happened that I felt that i was in the slow lane in my career. Things were happening fine but something just wasn’t feeling right. And, soon enough, my portfolio changed to a new and  exciting one. What  was mundane day and week for me, suddenly converted into new and exciting times – something that I will always remember and smile back upon! The sudden “Twist” in my life gave me enough reason to get back to the field and bat on the front foot. Doesn’t it happen to all of us? Just when we are thinking that there’s no solution and we are caught in the web of problems, a sudden event occurs and changes all of it. You get stuck in traffic everyday and one day a new flyover is inaugurated, and its all solved! You were struggling with one process and automation is introduced making life better. You always struggled with this particular colleague and one fine day, he shifts to another profile – A pleasant event can solve your long term problems just about any moment. Any Ball can suddenly turn into a Sixer! Remember what happened with Russell (WI vs Eng). Was it a Six or a Catch was separated by a couple of Centimeters, or Trott's shirt.

At another point in time, my stock portfolio was going great guns and I was happy to have put my monies into best of the companies, and with each passing day, my portfolio would end at something higher than what it started at. Then, January 21, 2008 happened. After that, when it started falling, it didn't stop. Before I could digest one big loss, another big one would just make its way in.  The happy me became a worried and low myself. Just when I thought I had scored a 50, I was Run Out. Just like the pleasant “twists”, even the bad and not wanted ones are as much a part and parcel of our lives. Suddenly a  “Devil in Pinstripes” becomes your Boss. One new process is introduced that makes your life hell every day, The neighbor you travelled everyday to work with changed address – some things that are so “not wanted” but still happened to complicate things around, just like that dreaded ball which gets you LBW!

These twists and turns have left me with a lot to learn. The twists have helped me become a more hopeful person. Now any time I feel unexcited, low, lonely, I do have this streak of hope that suddenly something will happen and things will be alright. More often than not, such moments do come!  Positivity in thoughts do bring positivity in actions and results. For the “turns”, I have definitely become a more humble person because now I know that any sudden turn can spoil the party. Expecting a “turn” every now and then helps me stick to the ground. This whole phenomenon of “Twists” and “Turns” help me hope for the Best and be prepared for the worst. This Balance has helped me cruise through a lot of pleasant and not-so-pleasant experiences in  life. What I do continue is putting in a lot of hard work, dedication and sincerity in everything I take up, so that the “twists” keep happening and the “turns” don’t bother me enough. What I will be proud of is “My Innings” even if the entire match was not completely in my hands!

PS. Do share this with others and your feedback with me. pl do get in touch with me on twitter @agrawalsanjeev

It all depends on me

It all depends on me. The thought is simple but I have a complicated story found on the net. You do need to read it carefully, to appreciate the depth in this story.

This story is about a Jew man named Elazar ben Durdaya. Elazar had become addicted to allurements of lust and passion. One Day, he was told by someone, "Elazar, you are beyond salvation, there is no World to Come for you." Something about what she said or the way she said it, shook Elazar. He was driven by an overwhelming desire to return to a Godly path, if only God would forgive him. He cried out to the mountains and hills and said, "Please, plead my case for me, ask God to have mercy on me." But they responded, "We must plead for ourselves." ." He turned heavenward and cried, "Please, heavens and earth, intercede on my behalf." But they too answered, “We must ask mercy for ourselves.” He begged to Sun, Moon and Sky and still received the same response.

Elazar fell to the ground and cried from the depths of his soul. After a time he rose and spoke the truest words that had ever crossed his lips, "The matter rests entirely with me, the responsibility is all mine." And that moment his soul left his body. A heavenly voice then rang out and said “Elazar, your repentance has been accepted, you are worthy of the World to Come.”

Elazar was trying to make amends, but he was also trying to shift the blame. When he asked the mountains and hills to intervene, he was really thinking, "It's my parents' fault that I turned out like this. They didn't discipline me enough, they didn't have the time to invest in me, they spoiled me." But this plea was rejected. He turned to heaven and earth, both symbols of the society that he was raised in. "It was the environment I grew up in, my friends, my school… Everybody was doing it. It wasn't my fault." But this defense wasn't answered either. He tried again, and turned to the sun and moon, both symbols of affluence. "It was the glitz and the glamour of how I grew up. There was so much emphasis on the material world, I couldn't escape it." But again, nothing. In his last attempt of self-defense, he blamed his destiny to be how he is, but to no avail. Finally after a cathartic cry he found the strength to look inward. He realized that he couldn't shift the blame to anyone else. "It's all my fault," he admitted, "I am the only one truly responsible for my behavior." And in that moment he merited eternal life.

In modern era, there is a Peanuts cartoon where the authoritarian Lucy is busy handing out to her friends lists of their faults & imperfections. When challenged as to what right she has to do this, she responds, "I want to make this a better world for me to live in." We live in a "me" society. Sometimes it seems as if we live in a culture of victimization where it is always someone else's fault. How easy it is to rationalize my mistakes and blame circumstances "beyond my control" for errors of my own creation. The self-centered syndrome becomes a norm for those who find it natural to "pass the buck" and place the blame on others.

More often than not, this is what we do in our professional lives too. We are so engrossed in our day to day work, that instead of trying to sort out problem ourselves, we choose to externalize the problem to other people or circumstances. So much so, that we almost take assumptions in other people’s functions – “Boss will never approve it”, “XYZ team is too lazy to work out on this new project”, “ABC team continues to send crappy data”, “Team is filled up with defensive people” – Aren’t these a few comments that we carelessly make to show our helplessness to reduce our pain points?

Some of it is true. May be there are many things that are beyond our control and will continue to give us pain in our day to day functioning. But the question really is “Are we putting enough efforts from our own side?”. Can you cross your heart and say that “I have not been able to solve this problem because I could not have done anything else about it”? Possibly not. The next question is, whether we have defined our pain areas or not. Because its so easy to shirk the responsibility by externalizing any issue, we continue to work like we are, continue with the pain areas , without even thinking of the possible solutions of the problems. Across the various meetings over my career i have realised that the inidividuals identified the problem, offered the solution and worked on resolving them. I only helped in putting a structure to their thoughts. The solution was well within them.

So next time you complain about anything – Look within, the answer probably lies there! Or think about Elazar ben Durdaya and how he got his salvation.

Intellectual dishonesty

This is a more provocative thought than the one posted previously. Please do read it with an open mind (and heart).

Intellectual dishonesty is the advocacy of a position known to be false. An argument which is misused to advance an agenda or to reinforce one's deeply held beliefs in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

In all our daily lives, there are a lot of times that we knowingly or unknowingly go through this phenomenon of ‘Intellectual Dishonesty’. Whilst sub consciously we know what we are saying / doing is incorrect, we still go ahead and do it as it will benefit us in some way or the other. Just for a few examples:

·         “I am in Sync” : Believing X but saying I Believe Y : You have concerns with a subordinate’s work. You have given him hard time in a few instances. When you sit for his appraisal, you give him ratings that look decent as you don’t want to confront him. But to HR, you recommend poor increment and no promotion. When appraisal results come and he asks you, you blame it on HR & company policies. In the short run, everything is fine. But the poor guy never even comes to know that he is bad at his work and he continues to be bad, or probably worse, because now, he is even critical of company policies. What you thought was a win-win, is a lose-lose!

·         “I have completed” : You complete your work, knowing fully well that it is for the sake of doing so : You have to complete your work by day after tomorrow. You are not sure whether what you have done is correct or not. Late night, you send a mail to your colleagues to check whether the file is correct or not. You know that there’ll be no response on it. Day after, you freeze the file and circulate it to a wider group. Next time during the discussion, you say that you had asked for verification and no one bothered to reply. You won the argument, you lost the trust!

·         “I am helpless” : Without putting efforts, you externalise the problem: The sales are not moving up and the pressure from your boss is rising every day. You know everything is going as per daily routine and set processes. When asked, why is the sales not happening, you blame it on “Inflation”, which is the flavor of the season. Boss hesitantly agrees. The next time, when inflation drama is over, you look for another situation to blame the low sales upon. The sales never grow as no new efforts are ever taken by you!

·         “I am right” : Not agreeing to the other person, even when you know he’s correct : You are in the middle of an argument. The opponent shares some statistics, which are right, but now, it's against your ego to agree with him. You keep on going around the conversation trying to drive your point and finally end up in an ugly disagreement. You go ahead and implement what he was saying, as you know it was correct!

·         “I ignore” : Not acknowledging the question itself, if you don’t want to answer : When asked in a meeting by Boss, "Are the new merchandize displays up?", you, even after knowing that the displays are not up, do not answer. A "no answer", in most cases, indicates positive reply. By not answering you have avoided getting battered, but hidden the truth.

These are some of the instances, where we tend to be dishonest with ourselves. Just to avoid momentary discomfiture, we go ahead and falter with the end results. Sometimes, it's just to satisfy our ego or plain laziness!

Whilst there might not be a direct next step for this thought, my only intent is for you to acknowledge the same within yourself, and ask the right question to “yourself”. Whether you agree or disagree with the thoughts, it would be a pleasure to know your view.

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